I've been wrong about some NHL prospects, and I'm not ashamed to admit it. It's part of the job, and it's how we learn and improve. Here's a look at three players I initially misjudged, and why I got it wrong.
Shane Wright, C, Seattle Kraken (2022 NHL Draft)
I ranked Wright as the No. 1 prospect heading into the 2022 draft, but he only posted 94 points in the OHL, finishing eighth in scoring. Wright lacked the dynamic traits and feistiness scouts wanted to see, and three other players (Juraj Slafkovsky, Šimon Nemec, and Logan Cooley) passed him in the rankings. I considered ranking Nemec and Cooley No. 1, but ultimately decided against it. Wright has become a good player, but he may not reach his projected 30-goal, 70-point ceiling. Cooley and Slafkovsky, who possessed the defining attributes I couldn't find in Wright, are already achieving those milestones.
I believe Wright's performance was affected by his lack of 'je ne sais quoi' or aura, which is a key trait of truly world-class athletes. I remember the combine where Slafkovsky exuded confidence, while Wright seemed forced and defensive about his status. This intangible quality can make a significant difference in a player's success.
Eduard Sale, LW, Seattle Kraken (2023 NHL Draft)
Sale, a skilled but mercurial perimeter winger, was a risky prospect due to his low-compete, low-pace style and top-six-only profile. His production in Czechia's junior league, which doesn't produce many first-rounders, added to the uncertainty. In hindsight, I ranked him too early, even though his shot, puck skill, and touch were impressive. Some translation challenges in the North American game were expected.
Dmitri Simashev, LHD, Utah Mammoth (2023 NHL Draft)
Simashev, a rangy, smooth-skating defenseman, was a bubble first-round pick in 2023. I initially gave too much emphasis to the Russian factor after the invasion of Ukraine. Today, I'd take him much higher, as his offense has improved significantly. He's now a top-10 pick in today's game.
Easton Cowan, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs (2023 NHL Draft)
Cowan, a 5-foot-10.5 winger, was drafted at No. 28 by the Maple Leafs, despite being listed as No. 51 by NHL Central Scouting. In hindsight, the Leafs made the right choice. Cowan improved throughout the year and excelled in the OHL playoffs with his line. He won awards, set records, and became an NHLer at 20. His game can still tunnel vision at times, but he's looked like a first-rounder since his post-draft debut.
Beckett Sennecke, RW, Anaheim Ducks (2024 NHL Draft)
Sennecke, a high-skill individual player with size, was initially ranked too low. I saw him play more than any other prospect in the class and heard positive feedback from various sources. However, I was hesitant to move him up due to concerns about his strength and maturity. Sennecke's talent and upside were clear, and he improved month to month. He should have been in Tier 3, not Tier 4, and I needed a shorter-term memory in my process.
These misjudgments highlight the challenges of scouting and the importance of transparency. It's crucial to admit when we're wrong and learn from our mistakes. By reviewing my past evaluations, I can improve my understanding of players and make more accurate projections in the future.
